October 25, 2026 · Finance & Markets Daily Digest
A Sunday compilation of index levels, mega-cap technology, earnings and fundamentals, market sentiment, and institutional positioning, with summaries, links, and commentary. Cash equities were closed; the latest official prints are Friday's close plus weekend crypto and research notes.
I. Indexes
1. U.S. cash markets were shut on Sunday; the Dow fell 1.23% Friday and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted a second straight weekly loss (Indexes)
Summary:
October 25 was a Sunday, so U.S. cash equities, Treasuries, and crude did not trade. The last full pricing is Friday, October 23. MewVest put the Dow at 52,215.16, down 652.82 points or 1.23%; the S&P 500 at 7,623.68, down 39.75 points or 0.52%; and the Nasdaq Composite at 25,955.34, down 53.52 points or 0.21%. TipRanks' Sunday note put the week at a 0.41% Dow gain, a 0.47% S&P 500 loss, and a 0.71% Nasdaq Composite loss. The same note put the 10-year yield near 5%, gold near $4,008.70, WTI near $103.31, and the VIX at 19.45.
Links:
- MewVest — October 25 report: Friday closes for the three major indexes
- TipRanks — Macro and markets, October 25: the week that was and the week ahead
Commentary:
A 0.21% Nasdaq drop on the day, against a 0.71% weekly loss, shows the AI selloff has narrowed at index level while the Dow absorbed the industrial and financial damage.
2. Brent settled Friday at $116.72; the energy ETF rose 2.60% to a record while consumer staples fell 1.92% (Energy)
Summary:
TokenPost reported on October 25 that Brent rose 3.1% on Friday to $116.72 a barrel, which it described as the highest since June 2022. Caterpillar fell 2.4%, and American Express fell 3.7% even after profit beat expectations. MewVest's Sunday report, which flags the cash-market holiday, has Brent at $116.72, up 3.14%, and WTI at $103.27, up 3.82%. The energy ETF (XLE) rose 2.60% to a record, the semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 0.74%, consumer staples (XLP) fell 1.92%, communication services fell 1.78%, and consumer discretionary fell 1.66%. Only energy, semiconductors, technology, and real estate rose among 11 sectors. Crude futures did not print a new settlement on Sunday.
Links:
- TokenPost — Brent rises to $116.72 as the Dow and S&P 500 close lower
- MewVest — October 25 report: energy at a record, staples weakest
Commentary:
Oil has taken the index's pricing power from the tech selloff: energy made a record while staples fell almost 2% and failed as a defense.
II. Mega-Cap Technology
3. Microsoft closed Friday up 0.66% at $524.51; Alphabet closed at $320.21, under its 52-week average (Technology)
Summary:
Yahoo Finance quotes still showing the latest close, 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Friday, had Microsoft at $524.51, up $3.43 or 0.66%; Apple at $347.73, down 0.14%; Nvidia at $210.96, down 0.59%; Amazon at $248.00, down 0.95%; Meta at $642.62, down 0.96%; and Alphabet (GOOGL) at $320.21, down 1.24%. FXEmpire's October 25 weekly note confirmed Microsoft at $524.51 and said Alphabet finished below its 52-week moving average at $332.99 for the first time since June 16. The short-term retracement zone at $324.25 to $340.36 is now resistance, and the swing bottom is $314.90.
Links:
- Yahoo Finance — Latest closes for Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta
- FXEmpire — Nasdaq focus on Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon; Alphabet breaks its 52-week average
Commentary:
Earnings week is already split: Microsoft is still in a weekly uptrend, while Alphabet has closed under its own 52-week average ahead of the report.
4. Meta's third-quarter free cash flow turned negative by $2.12 billion; 2026 capex was narrowed to $135 billion–$145 billion (Technology)
Summary:
Meta's investor release showed third-quarter revenue of $64.60 billion, up 26% year over year. Costs and expenses were $51.61 billion, up 68%, including a $9.89 billion litigation charge. Operating income was $12.988 billion, down 37%, and the operating margin fell from 40% to 20%. Diluted EPS was $3.83. Operating cash flow was $32.79 billion and free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion. Capital expenditure, including principal payments on finance leases, was $34.91 billion. The company narrowed 2026 capex, on the same definition, to $135 billion–$145 billion from $130 billion–$145 billion, and guided fourth-quarter revenue to $73 billion–$76 billion. MoneyToday on October 25 tied the negative free cash flow to the Nasdaq's 2.60% drop on October 22, its largest one-day fall since June.
Links:
- Meta Investor Relations — Third quarter 2026 results
- MoneyToday — Meta free cash flow of negative $2.12 billion; Korea watches rates and earnings
Commentary:
Revenue still grew 26%, but free cash flow is negative because the quarter's $34.91 billion of capex already exceeds $32.79 billion of operating cash flow.
III. Earnings
5. About one-third of the S&P 500 reports next week; consensus figures are already set for Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon (Earnings)
Summary:
A Reuters story published October 25 said weakness in technology shares left investors reassessing the AI trade that has driven the bull market. The Nasdaq Composite posted a slim loss on Friday after its biggest one-day drop since June, and investors were disappointed by results from Meta and Lam Research. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon lead a week in which about one-third of S&P 500 companies report, and the Fed meets on Wednesday. TipRanks listed consensus of $4.71 EPS and about $90.63 billion of revenue for Microsoft after Wednesday's close, $3.03 and about $127.91 billion for Alphabet, and $1.97 and about $202.16 billion for Amazon after Thursday's close. EconoTimes, citing LSEG, said more than 100 S&P 500 companies had reported third-quarter results, with earnings growth tracking above 32% year over year.
Links:
- Reuters — Earnings flood and the Fed meeting will test a shaky AI rally
- TipRanks — Earnings expectations for Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon
Commentary:
Reported earnings growth above 32% means the test is whether hyperscaler capex still fits inside free cash flow, not whether growth exists.
6. American Express raised its full-year EPS guide and plans to cut about 5% of jobs; the stock still fell (Earnings)
Summary:
CNBC reported that CEO Stephen Squeri told Friday's earnings call the company will eliminate about 5% of its global workforce and take a $336 million restructuring charge. Headcount was almost 77,000 at the end of 2025. The CFO told CNBC the restructuring was meant to make the firm leaner and to prepare for AI. Adjusted EPS was $4.68, above the LSEG consensus of $4.48. Revenue rose 9% to $20.06 billion, slightly below the $20.12 billion estimate. Unadjusted full-year EPS guidance was raised to $18.30–$18.60 from $17.30–$17.90. CNBC said the shares were down roughly 4% in the afternoon. Reuters put the cuts at about 3,500 jobs and the morning decline at 2.5%. TokenPost recorded a 3.7% drop.
Links:
- CNBC — American Express is cutting 5% of its workforce to prepare for AI
- Reuters — American Express lifts its 2026 profit forecast and plans to cut 5% of staff
Commentary:
A beat and a higher guide still produced a drop of roughly 4%, so the stock traded the restructuring charge and the slight revenue miss rather than a break in affluent spending.
IV. Sectors
7. The KOSPI closed Friday at 5,550.30; SK hynix rose 4.42% after suspending a Solidigm U.S. listing (Semiconductors)
Summary:
MoneyToday, citing the Korea Exchange on October 25, said the KOSPI closed October 23 at 5,550.30, up 16.53 points or 0.30% on the day and down 117.75 points or 2.08% from the prior week's close. For the week, retail investors net sold 1.1021 trillion won, foreigners net sold 719.9 billion won, and institutions net bought 419 billion won. Foreigners net sold 863.7 billion won of SK hynix and net bought 783.8 billion won of Samsung Electronics. After SK hynix suspended consideration of a Nasdaq listing for its grandchild company Solidigm, the shares rose 4.42% to 1,277,000 won. Samsung Electronics rose 0.47% to 215,500 won. The won closed at 1,324.6 per dollar. SK hynix reports third-quarter results on October 28 and Samsung Electronics reports finalized results on October 29. KB Securities research head Kim Dong-won said the index formed lows at 5,262 on July 29 and 5,450 on October 15, and is down 40.86% from the June intraday record of 9,385.59.
Links:
Commentary:
A 0.30% daily gain does not offset a 2.08% weekly drop and foreign selling; suspending the Solidigm listing addresses dilution, not memory demand.
8. Broad China equity ETFs took in more than 270 billion yuan; reclaiming 3,674 on the Shanghai Composite was called an oversold bounce (China equities)
Summary:
CNR on October 25 quoted Western Securities chief strategist Cao Liulong: from September 28 through October 23, major broad ETFs saw net inflows of more than 270 billion yuan, including about 108.9 billion yuan into CSI 300 ETFs and about 109.6 billion yuan into ChiNext and STAR ETFs. On both October 22 and October 23, broad ETF inflows exceeded 50 billion yuan, close to the mid-to-late July peak of about 55 billion yuan. The ChiNext and the STAR 50 are each more than 40% below this rally's high. A 21st Century Business Herald program the same day said the Shanghai Composite lost 3,674 on Thursday, touched 3,574 early Friday, then closed back above 3,674 as turnover rose from about 1.4 trillion yuan to 1.97 trillion yuan. The guest called the session an oversold bounce, not a reversal, and cited a one-year line near 3,985 and a half-year line near 3,965. Yicai at 21:52 forwarded China Merchants strategy: turnover and turnover rates are near historical-bottom ranges, but U.S. AI pricing is shifting from spending expansion to return verification, and high rates plus oil still cap valuations.
Links:
- CNR — Western Securities: broad ETF inflows top 270 billion yuan
- 21st Century Business Herald — A high-volume recovery of 3,674 looks like an oversold bounce
Commentary:
Two straight days of broad ETF inflows above 50 billion yuan are a position bid; one close back above 3,674 is not a trend reversal.
V. Central Banks and Macro
9. The Fed decides Wednesday: the October 22 10-year yield was 4.96%, and futures put an October hike below 10% (Central banks)
Summary:
The Federal Reserve H.15 selected-interest-rate release dated October 23, with data through October 22, showed a 10-year constant-maturity yield of 4.96%, a 2-year yield of 4.65%, an effective federal funds rate of 3.88%, and a bank prime rate of 7.00%. EconoTimes on October 25, citing Reuters and LSEG, said futures late Friday put the chance of an October rate increase below 10% and the chance of a December increase near 80%. The FOMC meets October 27–28, with the statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. The target range is 3.75%–4.00% after a 25-basis-point hike on September 16. MewVest recorded the University of Michigan's final October sentiment reading at 48.0, below September's 48.1 and a five-month low, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.7%.
Links:
- Federal Reserve — H.15 selected interest rates through October 22, 2026
- EconoTimes — Big Tech earnings meet the Fed; October hike odds below 10%
Commentary:
No October hike is the futures base case, while a December hike is still priced near 80%, so the curve is trading a hold this week and another tightening at the next meeting.
10. France's 10-year yield touched 5.14%; China's October LPR was unchanged for a 17th month and the MLF drained 200 billion yuan net (Macro)
Summary:
China Galaxy's October 25 macro weekly said Yemen's Houthis claimed large-scale strikes inside Saudi Arabia on Saturday evening local time. It also said the French 10-year yield touched 5.14% during the week and rose above the same-maturity U.S. yield, the highest since July 2002. The same note said the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 6.7% on Thursday and the U.S. 10-year yield fell 16.6 basis points to 4.953% that day. In China, the October LPR was unchanged for a 17th month, at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years and longer. The central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of one-year MLF against 900 billion yuan maturing, a net drain of 200 billion yuan. Outright reverse repos in two tenors were a net injection of 400 billion yuan, so medium-term tools were a net injection of 200 billion yuan. Open-market reverse repos were a net injection of 62 billion yuan for the week. The 10-year Chinese government yield closed at 1.6400%, down 1 basis point, and the 30-year at 2.0675%, up 1 basis point. The report said fourth-quarter growth above 4.3% would be enough to meet a full-year goal above 4.5%.
Links:
Commentary:
A French yield above the U.S. yield is a European risk premium, not a global growth upgrade; China's curve barely moved, so domestic equities are not discounting a policy-rate shock.
VI. Institutions and Positioning
11. Bernstein cut its CoreWeave target to $51 and Morgan Stanley cut its target to $70 (Institutions)
Summary:
Blockspace reported that Bernstein on Thursday cut its CoreWeave price target to $51 from $74 and kept an Underperform rating. The new target implied about 8.6% downside from Wednesday's close of $55.60. The bank cut adjusted EPS to a loss of $5.14 for 2026 and $6.81 for 2027, and estimated the company must raise $85 billion to fund its committed backlog, with $9 billion already covered. It said the unsecured market remains open at rates of 15% and higher. TipRanks reported that Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Wood cut his target to $70 from $99 and kept a Hold rating, still about 25.9% above Thursday's close of $55.60. Wood estimated CoreWeave may need $24 billion to $37 billion of additional debt to reach about 3.3 gigawatts of active capacity by the end of 2027, and he cut his base-case value range to $50–$115 from $80–$131.
Links:
- Blockspace — Bernstein cuts the CoreWeave target to $51
- TipRanks — Morgan Stanley cuts the CoreWeave target to $70
Commentary:
One target sits below the last close and one sits above it, so the split is the cost of funding, not whether the backlog exists. The Hold rating at $70 still implies upside if the unsecured market stays open.
VII. Sentiment and Technicals
12. The Nasdaq's weekly close is under 26,074; bitcoin finished Sunday at $80,888 after trading below $80,000 (Sentiment)
Summary:
FXEmpire's October 25 weekly analysis said the Nasdaq Composite closed last week at 25,955.34, down 184.69 points or 0.71%. The close was under the short-term 50% retracement at 26,074.05. A trade through 25,802.96 would turn the main swing trend down. The 52-week moving average is at 24,615.85. TipRanks put Friday's VIX at 19.45. Queue Lab's October 25 note said bitcoin's daily candle confirmed at 09:00 Korea time closed at $80,888.16, down 0.4% from $81,189.43. The high was $81,213.64 and the low was $79,220.74, so the price traded under $80,000 and closed back above it. Citing CoinGlass, the note said about $404.15 million of that window's liquidations through 13:00 U.S. time on October 24 were longs. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs had combined net outflows of $773 million on Thursday and Friday. The Alternative.me fear-and-greed index was 54, versus 51 the day before.
Links:
- FXEmpire — Nasdaq closes under 26,074; 25,802 is the trend line
- Queue Lab — Bitcoin closes October 25 at $80,888; long liquidations about $404 million
Commentary:
The Nasdaq is about 150 points from a trend change, and bitcoin already tested $80,000 over the weekend while cash equities were shut.
Today's Summary
- U.S. cash equities, Treasuries, and crude were closed on October 25. On Friday the Dow fell 1.23% to 52,215.16, the S&P 500 fell 0.52% to 7,623.68, and the Nasdaq fell 0.21% to 25,955.34. For the week the Dow rose 0.41%, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.71%. The VIX was 19.45.
- Brent settled Friday at $116.72. The energy ETF rose 2.60% to a record and consumer staples fell 1.92%. Houthi claims of strikes in Saudi Arabia circulated Saturday evening, and crude did not print a new settlement on Sunday.
- Meta's third-quarter free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion, and its 2026 capex range was narrowed to $135 billion–$145 billion. Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon report this week. TipRanks' revenue consensus is about $90.6 billion, $127.9 billion, and $202.2 billion, respectively.
- The KOSPI fell 2.08% on the week, while SK hynix rose 4.42% on the day it suspended a Solidigm listing. Major China broad ETFs took in more than 270 billion yuan from September 28 through October 23, and the Shanghai Composite reclaimed 3,674 on Friday. The Fed decides Wednesday, and LSEG futures put another October hike below 10%.
Opportunities and risks: Energy shares and the broad-ETF subscriptions already recorded are the clearer bids. The risks to watch together are Brent holding above $116, whether Meta-style negative free cash flow spreads to the other three hyperscalers, and whether the Nasdaq trades through 25,802.96.
Daily Framing:
This was a pre-super-week holiday in the financial-news cycle: cash markets printed no new prices, while oil, hyperscaler cash flow, and Wednesday's Fed decision are already queued for the next session.
This digest is compiled from real-time search results and is for reference only.