Oct 18, 2026 · Energy & Climate Daily Digest
A digest of energy and climate developments compiled for October 18, 2026, with summaries, links, and commentary.
I. Energy Security, Policy, and Carbon Markets
1. The Hormuz shock turns Europe's electrification debate into orders (energy security)
Summary:
El País reported on October 18 that the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, following the war in Ukraine, amount to a second energy crisis in five years and are weakening resistance to leaving fossil fuels. Renewable installations rose 15.5% worldwide last year, a record, and global electricity storage is expected to double this year. Electric-vehicle sales have jumped in major European markets since spring: fully electric cars are about one in two new cars in Portugal and Belgium and about one in three in France and Germany, while Spain already has 400,000 electric cars on the road. The EU spent more than €300 billion on oil and gas last year; Jan Rosenow of the University of Oxford says the Hormuz closure added about €50 billion, and he cites a European Commission estimate that electrification could cut that burden by up to €260 billion by 2040. Bruce Douglas, chief executive of the Global Renewables Alliance, says importers are spending an extra $1.8 billion a day and cites a 16% year-on-year drop in China's oil demand for transport. COP31 president Murat Kurum has proposed raising electricity's share of global final energy from about 23% to 35% by 2035. Council of the EU papers preparing the bloc's position say the proposal does not commit to supplying that increase only with clean power.
Links:
Commentary:
Fuel prices have made electric cars and heat pumps an economic case; the 35% electrification target still does not say where the electricity comes from.
2. Italy opens Fer X expressions of interest on October 22, with 27.15 GW of auction quotas (renewables)
Summary:
Il Sole 24 Ore reported on October 18 that the final Fer X support scheme, run by the energy services manager GSE, is under way for solar, wind, hydro, and sewage-gas plants whose costs are close to market rates, and remains in force through December 31, 2030. The window for expressions of interest runs from noon on October 22 to noon on November 6. Projects above 1 MW compete in auctions and must obtain preliminary qualification by November 30. Auction quotas total 27.15 GW: 16.50 GW of wind, 10 GW of solar, 0.63 GW of hydro, and 0.02 GW of sewage gas, with another 10 GW reserved for direct access by plants up to 1 MW. A decree of October 2 sets targets for the first round rather than volumes that are awarded automatically: 350 MW for conventional solar, 150 MW for solar under the EU Net-Zero Industry Act, 1.5 GW for conventional wind, and 750 MW for NZIA wind. The solar reference operating price is €80/MWh and the auction ceiling is €95/MWh; for wind the figures are €85 and €95. Winners receive a 20-year two-way contract for difference and repay GSE when the market price is above the awarded price.
Links:
Commentary:
October 22 opens an expression-of-interest window; 27.15 GW is the scheme's auction quota, not capacity this round will award.
3. Bangladesh's cabinet clears a rooftop-solar draft aimed at 3,000–4,000 MW before next summer (solar)
Summary:
The Daily Star reported on October 18 that a cabinet meeting chaired by Prime Minister Tarique Rahman approved the draft Special Solar Power Installation Ordinance, 2026, targeting 3,000–4,000 MW of solar before next summer to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. Cabinet Secretary Nasimul Gani said the recent war had exposed the country's energy vulnerability, that systems could go on government and private buildings and unused land, and that the ordinance was expected to be issued the same day. A cabinet division statement said the Public Procurement Act, the Invest Bangladesh Act, and the Electricity Act do not cover installation and service arrangements under the capital-expenditure model, while the operating-expenditure model lacks rules on 15-year power prices, rooftop rent paid in electricity, and maintenance. The Power Division has drawn up a National Renewable Energy Development Strategy for 2026–2030 under which investors would finance rooftop systems on public buildings and institutions with their own revenue could build their own.
Links:
Commentary:
The cabinet approved a draft that fills gaps on price, rooftop rent, and maintenance; 3,000–4,000 MW remains a target for before next summer.
4. Brazil sets up a carbon-market working group on leakage and border adjustments (carbon market)
Summary:
Carbon Pulse reported on October 18 that Brazil has established a working group, through a federal resolution, to examine the competitiveness of entities covered by its emerging emissions trading system, including carbon border adjustment mechanisms and carbon leakage. The text is CTCP/SBCE Resolution No. 5, dated October 14, adopted after a September 28 plenary decision of the standing technical advisory committee and published in an extra edition of the Federal Official Gazette on October 15. The group is to recommend responses on regulatory and competitiveness risks, shifts of production to jurisdictions without equivalent carbon pricing, equalization of carbon costs, decarbonization pathways, use of system revenues, and the effect of other jurisdictions' border adjustments. It is coordinated by the Subsecretariat of Regulation and Methodologies in the Finance Ministry's extraordinary carbon-market secretariat. Participating bodies have ten days from publication to name representatives. The group lasts up to one year from its first meeting, and the committee plenary may extend it for another year.
Links:
- Carbon Pulse — Brazil establishes a competitiveness working group under its emerging ETS
- LegisMap — CTCP/SBCE Resolution No. 5 of October 14, 2026
Commentary:
What was reported today is a working group on leakage and border adjustments, not a cap or an auction start date.
5. UK cross-party group asks the budget to cut industrial carbon costs and backs North Sea oil and gas (carbon market)
Summary:
Carbon Pulse reported on October 18, citing The Telegraph, that a cross-party group founded by Labour MPs Henry Tufnell and Steve Yemm is urging the UK government to reduce industrial carbon costs in the coming budget, arguing that sectors including chemicals, refining, and ceramics are at a disadvantage. Its "emergency plan for industry" calls for extending industry allowances under the UK emissions trading system, or removing some sectors from the scheme, and for changes to the UK's proposed carbon border adjustment mechanism. The group also backs North Sea oil and gas production. A decision on re-approving the Jackdaw gas field could come as early as Monday, while Rosebank faces a longer wait.
Links:
- Carbon Pulse — Carbon market ticker, October 16–18
- The Telegraph — Labour MPs urge carbon-tax cuts and support for North Sea drilling
Commentary:
What is on the table before the budget is a lower carbon bill and a fresh green light for North Sea projects, not a new emissions target.
6. California law requires an electrification option before a gas service line is replaced (electrification)
Summary:
Grist on October 18 republished a Canary Media report on California's Home Energy Choice Act, Assembly Bill 2313, which requires utilities to offer households scheduled for a gas service-line replacement either the new line or a financial incentive, worth less than the replacement, to switch to a heat pump, induction range, and heat-pump water heater. In Pacific Gas and Electric's service area a replacement typically costs $20,000 to $30,000 and is recovered from all gas customers over the life of the asset; the utility replaces about 15,000 service lines a year. The Natural Resources Defense Council calculates that giving 1,000 households $17,500 each instead of replacing the lines would save gas customers $20 million in total. That figure is a scenario, not a subsidy set in the statute. The version that passed caps programs at 1% of a utility's customers, and the law expires on January 1, 2035, though it can be renewed. The Public Utilities Commission must write the framework, and utilities have until January 1, 2028, for their programs to be approved.
Links:
Commentary:
The law attaches an exit option to the moment a line would be replaced; the incentive level waits on the utilities commission.
II. Renewables, Storage, and Industry
7. At the Canton Fair, China's solar exports are up 10.3% and batteries 34.8% for the first three quarters (exports)
Summary:
China News Service reported from Guangzhou on October 18 that solar panels, inverters, balcony solar, and commercial storage drew foreign buyers at the 140th China Import and Export Fair. Customs data show power-equipment exports still growing in the first three quarters: solar products up 10.3%, wind turbines and parts up 22.4%, and batteries of all kinds up 34.8%, shipping to more than 200 countries and regions. Xu Leiping, deputy general manager for sales at Zhejiang Era New Energy, said intended orders since the fair opened were about $1.2 million and Southeast Asian orders were expected to rise more than 30%; a 1.5-square-meter balcony module from the company weighs 2 kilograms. Li Ziqin, a sales manager at Shenzhen Ruidian Green Energy, said overseas sales this year were expected to reach 200 million yuan, with gains of 200% to 300% in some regions, and that the firm plans to expand storage capacity from 2.5 GWh to 5 GWh at a new base in Huizhou. An Indian buyer said quality certification remains a barrier for some suppliers. The company figures are what exhibitors told reporters on the floor.
Links:
Commentary:
Customs figures confirm that exports grew through the third quarter; the orders and capacity plans on the floor are still company estimates.
8. US storage installations hit 18.9 GWh in the second quarter as Korean battery profits are expected to recover (storage)
Summary:
MoneyToday reported on October 18, citing FnGuide, that the consensus forecast for Samsung SDI's third-quarter operating profit is 165.4 billion won, which would be a second straight profitable quarter after 203.8 billion won in the second quarter. LG Energy Solution's previously released preliminary third-quarter results show operating profit up 25.7% year on year to 765 billion won, and still an expected 339.1 billion won after stripping out the US advanced manufacturing production tax credit. US energy-storage installations reached a quarterly record of 18.9 GWh in the second quarter and are expected to exceed that in the third. Wood Mackenzie recently raised its forecast for cumulative US storage installations by 2031 from 600 GWh to 715 GWh. The US non-prohibited-foreign-entity share required for storage batteries rises from 55% this year to 75% in 2030, and for battery components from 60% to 85%. LG Energy Solution plans to lift US storage capacity from 22 GWh last year to 73 GWh next year.
Links:
Commentary:
Samsung SDI's 165.4 billion won is still a consensus estimate; what is already reported is LG Energy Solution's preliminary result and 18.9 GWh of US installations in the second quarter.
9. Maine's floating turbine is still a test model, and the research-array offtake talks are on hold (offshore wind)
Summary:
Inside Climate News reported on October 18 that a quarter-scale concrete platform from the University of Maine's Advanced Structures and Composites Center has been moored off Castine since May 2025, carrying a 108-foot turbine, and that Irish firm Dublin Offshore is testing a shock-absorbing mooring device on it. Chief engineer Anthony Viselli said a full-scale model could withstand waves of about 60 feet. The state signed a research-array lease with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management in 2024 for a project meant to build 10 to 12 full-size turbines, but the developer suspended offtake negotiations in March, citing shifts in the energy landscape, and the project is in limbo. The Biden administration had set a national goal of 15 GW of floating offshore wind by 2035. The article says the Trump administration has bought back some leases suitable for floating wind and cancelled wind-port grants, including in California and Salem, Massachusetts, while Nova Scotia last year solicited 5 GW of offshore wind, including sites suitable for floating turbines. The center's spinoff, DeepCWind, is still pursuing supply contracts for planned floating projects in Europe.
Links:
Commentary:
What is turning off Castine is a quarter-scale model; offtake talks for the 10-to-12-turbine research array have been paused since March.
III. Climate and Hazards
10. Hurricane Trudy remains Category 2 and is forecast to move away from Mexico's west coast Sunday afternoon (hurricane)
Summary:
The US National Hurricane Center's Advisory 21 at 8:00 a.m. MST on October 18 placed the center of Hurricane Trudy near latitude 19.1 north, longitude 106.8 west, about 115 miles (185 km) southwest of Cabo Corrientes and about 165 miles west of Manzanillo. Maximum sustained winds were 105 mph (165 km/h), minimum pressure was 970 millibars, and the storm was moving northwest at 8 mph. Mexico changed the hurricane warning from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes to a tropical storm warning and dropped warnings south of Playa Perula. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Playa Perula to San Blas and for Las Islas Marias. An additional 2 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated storm totals around 12 inches, was expected along the southwest coast in Jalisco, with a risk of life-threatening flooding and mudslides on steep terrain. The center said rapid weakening should begin tonight and Trudy could become a post-tropical low by Tuesday night. The Associated Press reported the same day that the storm was lashing parts of Mexico's Pacific coast but was forecast to move away.
Links:
- National Hurricane Center — Hurricane Trudy Public Advisory 21
- Associated Press — Hurricane Trudy brings heavy rain and strong winds to Mexico's Pacific coast
Commentary:
On Sunday morning it was still a Category 2 hurricane; the advisory's turn is an offshore track this afternoon, not further strengthening along the coast.
11. ASEAN raises its southern transboundary haze alert to the highest level (wildfire)
Summary:
France 24 reported on October 18 that months of forest and peatland fires in Indonesia have sent toxic haze into Malaysia, Singapore, and Timor-Leste. The ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre on Friday activated Alert Level 3 for the southern ASEAN region, the top rung of a four-tier scale, used when there is a high risk of severe transboundary haze and widespread moderate to dense smoke has been observed for two or more consecutive days. Environmental group Auriga said more than 637,000 hectares burned from January through August, about nine times the area of Singapore; deforestation monitor Nusantara Atlas put the figure closer to 900,000 hectares. Indonesia's disaster agency said 2.4 tonnes of dry ice were dispersed by plane on Saturday at a main airport in South Sumatra in an attempt to clear the haze. Singapore said Friday it would warn seven companies in Indonesia that it identified as responsible for fires. On Saturday, IQAir ranked Singapore and Kuala Lumpur second and third among major cities for pollution, at "very hazardous" readings. A Philippines foreign-department spokesman for ASEAN issues, Dominic Xavier Imperial, said Friday the haze would be discussed in meetings ahead of a November ASEAN summit in Manila.
Links:
Commentary:
The Level 3 alert was issued Friday; the burned-area figures are two monitors' estimates, not a final official total.
12. A strong El Niño is expected to intensify West Coast atmospheric rivers, with the first wave penciled in after mid-November (extreme weather)
Summary:
USA Today reported on October 18 that climate scientist Daniel Swain says a stronger El Niño brings stronger atmospheric rivers rather than more of them, and also raises the frequency of other storms in California. Writing on Weather West, he said that if this event is not already the strongest and easternmost-centered on record, it will become so, and that the tilt toward a wetter, stormier California will be pronounced. AccuWeather forecaster Alex DaSilva told the paper the first atmospheric river could arrive as early as mid-November, with the most frequent period in January and February. Swain said he would not be surprised to see little of note in October. DaSilva also warned of beach erosion, strong winds, and significant flooding from winter atmospheric rivers, and of flooding from snowmelt later in spring. Both noted that autumn precipitation has little statistical connection to even an extremely strong El Niño that would let it predict the winter.
Links:
Commentary:
What was published today is a higher winter risk, not an atmospheric river that has already made landfall.
Today's Summary
- The oil and gas bill after the closure of Hormuz is pushing Europe's electric-vehicle and electrification debate. The COP31 president has proposed electricity at 35% of final energy by 2035, and EU preparatory papers say that does not mean the added electricity must be clean.
- Italy's first Fer X expression-of-interest window opens on October 22, with 27.15 GW of auction quotas. Bangladesh's cabinet cleared a rooftop-solar draft aimed at 3,000–4,000 MW before next summer. Brazil's carbon-market working group will look at leakage and border adjustments. A UK cross-party group wants the budget to lower industrial carbon costs while Jackdaw awaits re-approval.
- China's solar exports rose 10.3% and batteries 34.8% in the first three quarters. US storage installations reached 18.9 GWh in the second quarter. California will require an electrification option before a gas service line is replaced. Offtake talks for Maine's floating research array have been paused since March.
- Hurricane Trudy was still Category 2 on Sunday morning, with winds of 165 km/h, and was forecast to move away from Mexico's west coast in the afternoon. ASEAN has issued its highest alert for southern transboundary haze. Stronger atmospheric rivers on the US West Coast are forecast for after mid-November.
Daily Framing:
Today in the energy and climate cycle was a day when fuel prices pushed electrification forward while carbon costs were asked to step aside: the same price shock that is rewriting car and rooftop-solar decisions is also, through a UK pre-budget demand and Brazil's leakage working group, redrawing how tight carbon markets can be.
This digest is compiled from real-time search results and is for reference only.